September 26th, 2007

Research company Forrester predicts that the format war will continue for at least 18 months, but says that Blu-ray will lose it in the end if they don’t change their tactics.

Blu-ray failed to win when they had the chance and ultimately will end up losing if they don’t lower their hardware prices down to the HD DVD level, the report concludes.

Here is a summary:
Forrester predicted in 2005 that Blu-ray would eventually win a hard-fought victory over HD DVD in the next-generation DVD format war. Today, Forrester believes that Blu-ray remains in a better position than HD DVD — but that Blu-ray strategists need to alter course. Blu-ray’s failure to land a knock-out blow means that the format war will continue for at least 18 more months. Blu-ray’s content advantages are somewhat diminished since the recent decision by Paramount to commit exclusively to HD DVD. And HD DVD hardware prices have dropped directly into consumers’ preferred price range, according to Forrester’s Technographics® survey data. Weakened by these developments, Blu-ray needs to offer a viable hardware model at the $250 price point by Christmas 2007. The Blu-ray camp must also stave off further studio defections, and employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD-DVD’s recent momentum. Failure to alter strategy would open up Blu-ray to a possible upset defeat at the hands of HD DVD.